[Sport] To Cap It All Off...

Another quick note on salary caps.

The NFL has had a salary cap for 12 years now. In the 12 years (1994-1983) prior to it introduction in 1994 there were six different winners and eleven different finalists*

Superbowl	Date	Winner (previous wins)	Score	Loser
XVII	Jan 30, 1983	Washington Redskins (1)	27-17	Miami Dolphins
XVIII	Jan 22, 1984	Los Angeles Raiders (3)	38-9	Washington Redskins
XIX	Jan 20, 1985	San Francisco 49ers (2)	38-16	Miami Dolphins
XX	Jan 26, 1986	Chicago Bears (1)	46-10	New England Patriots
XXI	Jan 25, 1987	New York Giants (1)	39-20	Denver Broncos
XXII	Jan 31, 1988	Washington Redskins (2)	42-10	Denver Broncos
XXIII	Jan 22, 1989	San Francisco 49ers (3)	20-16	Cincinnati Bengals
XXIV	Jan 28, 1990	San Francisco 49ers (4)	55-10	Denver Broncos
XXV	Jan 27, 1991	New York Giants (2)	20-19	Buffalo Bills
XXVI	Jan 26, 1992	Washington Redskins (3)	37-24	Buffalo Bills
XXVII	Jan 31, 1993	Dallas Cowboys (3)	52-17	Buffalo Bills
XXVIII	Jan 30, 1994	Dallas Cowboys (4)	30-13	Buffalo Bills

This means that In these years there was a non-repition rate of 0.45. (This is the number of different teams in the final divided by the total possible number of different teams. The lowest it can get is 2/[number of years], this would mean that the same two teams play in the final each year. A non-repitition rate of 1 is the "best " outcome).

In the years since it was introduced (1995-2006) there have been nine different winners and seventeen different finalists*.

Superbowl	Date	Winner (previous wins)	Score	Loser
XXIX	Jan 29, 1995	San Francisco 49ers (5)	49-26	San Diego Chargers
XXX	Jan 28, 1996	Dallas Cowboys (5)	27-17	Pittsburgh Steelers
XXXI	Jan 26, 1997	Green Bay Packers (3)	35-21	New England Patriots
XXXII	Jan 25, 1998	Denver Broncos (1)	31-24	Green Bay Packers
XXXIII	Jan 31, 1999	Denver Broncos (2)	34-19	Atlanta Falcons
XXXIV	Jan 30, 2000	St. Louis Rams (1)	23-16	Tennessee Titans
XXXV	Jan 28, 2001	Baltimore Ravens (1)	34-7	New York Giants
XXXVI	Feb 3, 2002	New England Patriots (1)	20-17	St. Louis Rams
XXXVII	Jan 26, 2003	Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1)	48-21	Oakland Raiders
XXXVIII	Feb 1, 2004	New England Patriots (2)	32-29	Carolina Panthers
XXXIX	Feb 6, 2005	New England Patriots (3)	24-21	Philadelphia Eagles
XL	Feb	Pittsburgh Steelers (5)	21-10	Seattle Seahawks

That is, a whopping 0.7 non-repitition rate of teams in the Superbowl!

Also, there were over 50% more teams in the final and 50% more teams winning the whole thing. And of the teams that won between 1983 and 1994 only two (the Cowboys and 49ers) also won between 1995 and 2006.

In the Super 12/14 there have been three different winners in 10 years with six different finalists**.

Final	Year	Winner	Score	Loser
1	1996	Blues	45 – 21	Sharks
2	1997	Blues	23 – 7	Brumbies
3	1998	Crusaders	20 – 13	Blues
4	1999	Crusaders	24 – 19	Highlanders
5	2000	Crusaders	20 – 19	Brumbies
6	2001	Brumbies	36 – 6	Sharks
7	2002	Crusaders	31 – 13	Brumbies
8	2003	Blues	21 – 17	Crusaders
9	2004	Brumbies	47 – 38	Crusaders
10	2005	Crusaders	35 – 25	Waratahs

This means a non-repititon rate of 0.3, which is bloody awful***.

If the Super 14 were to take up a salary cap and follow the same trend as the NFL that would mean in the next 10 years there would be four different winners (of which only one would be the same as the previous ten years) and nine different finalists.

Imagine that! A competition where the team you support (no matter which team that may be) has a chance of getting into the finals! Nah, what am I thinking with a salary cap in place the players wouldn’t get paid what they are worth.

[Just take a moment and let that sarcasm sink in]

* Out of a possible 12 different winners 24 different finalists

** Out of a possible 10 different winners 20 different finalists
*** Just for comparrison the salary-capped NRL has had an N-R rate of 0.69 in 8 years; the uncapped MLB has an N-R rate of 0.59 over the last eleven years (since the last player strike)